Stability Amidst Crisis
In the midst of the ongoing Cuban economic crisis, foreign currencies have exhibited a peculiar stability since August. The price stability of dollars, euros, and MLC in recent weeks, marked by modest fluctuations, stands in stark contrast to the significant price rises and falls witnessed in the first seven months of 2024. This stability provides a glimmer of hope in an otherwise turbulent economic landscape.The Impact of Economic Crisis
The latest report from the Observatorio de Monedas y Finanzas de Cuba (OMFi) reveals that the worsening economic crisis has had a "paralyzing effect" on the informal market. The decrease in the number of tourists, imports, and the overall decline in economic activity across all sectors have led to a contraction in the supply and demand for foreign currency. Cuban economist Pavel Vidal stated in the report that this situation is likely to continue.Since August, the US dollar has experienced its longest pause since El Toque began its monitoring, remaining at 320 pesos for 59 days. According to the latest calculations from the OMFi, by November 30th, the exchange rates could range between 319 and 335 pesos per dollar, 336 and 351 pesos per euro, and 270 and 281 pesos per MLC, depending on the minimum or maximum scenario. After a series of bad news including two hurricanes, two earthquakes, and two disconnections from the national electricity grid, the economist does not foresee many immediate changes. He lamented that the longer the recovery process is delayed, the fewer resources remain to boost the production of goods and services.